Monday, September 18, 2017

Doklam Issue- A Different Perspective



For nearly three month Indian and Chinese armed forces sat facing each other on the Doklam plateau. China conducted live fire exercises in Tibet and neighboring areas and India increased the presence of its armed force in Sikkim and other areas. There was big cry in China for teaching India a lesson and almost daily threats were issued by the Chinese press in giving India a few days to a weeks’ time o withdraw its forces. India retaliated by maintaining that the issue is to be solved by talks but kept and increased is forces in the area. There was big cry in India to boycott the Chinese goods and take action against the Chinese companies as retaliatory measure but India kept on insisting that the issue to be resolved by talks. There was international response to this issue in terms of support to India to urging the Chinese government to solve the issue through talks. Finally after the NSA level talks the statement was issued that both countries will withdraw their forces to the earlier levels. China issued the statement that it will continue to patrol the Doklam plateau and India that the plateau is a disputed territory and will be solved by mutual talks.
A least this is the official version and both countries are claiming that they have won and their stand has been validated. If both the countries have won then who lost. In any game of one up man ship there is always a winner and a loser, but here it is not so and both have won. This leads one to suspect that if both won then there is a third party which must have lost and this whole show was stage managed from the very beginning and the citizens of India, China and the world were mere spectators. Only the tax payers’ money was lost in the movement and maintenance of Indian forces and the same goes for Chinese with an addition of wastage of its ammunition used in live demonstration.
Let us look at some of the facts of the past. Chinese premier is about to go in for his second term and he is facing a lot of flank from the hardliners in the communist party. Recently the Indian opposition to the road link and the growing Indian influence is making his election for another term that much harder. The CPEC passing through POK and the Baluchistan is not doing well either. The leasing of Gawadar port to the Chinese and CPEC combine is causing worries among the citizens of Pakistan that with this growing influence and with the debt mounting, the day is not far when the china will demand it pound of flesh and may take over Pakistan if not physically but economically in order to protect its investments in Pakistan.
It is in India’s interest that the hardliners or hawks in china do not take over and Xi-Ping gets another term as its premier not only from stability point of view, but economically to both India and China and also for the success and growth of BRICS. How do you silence the hawks in China? By simply playing their card and escalating the tension on some issue on the border like Doklam and making noises like two dogs trying to scare each other and after some time knowing full well that international pressure and economic issues will force the hawks to agree to a more balanced approach. This is what exactly happened and the curtains on this drama will come down once Xi- Ping gets its second term as premier of China. The whole drama was played in which both the countries played their part with the full knowledge and understanding as to what will be the outcome and this is how both Mr. Narendra Modi and Mr. Xi- Ping can claim that both have won and the citizens were just an spectator to the whole drama.

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