Serendipity & Pareto's Principle

 

Yesterday while out for a morning walk I suddenly remembered that  the last five months I have passed with just three pairs of clothing. Of course this had to do with the corona pandemic and my being a senior citizen above 70 years of age. When I started looking back I realized that during the last two years I have only used about 20 to 25% of the clothes available in my wardrobe and the rest were just lying unused. Out of three suits which I own I have not used two of them for the last five years and the one used was once about 2 years back only. After coming back I decided to go through my other things and found the same to be true for my mobile phone, remote for TV, other electronic goods and even my shoes. My better half also quipped in by saying that a vast majority of things available in the kitchen have hardly been used and she does not remember when she used them last.

After pondering over all this it suddenly dawned on me that subconsciously I have reaffirmed two concepts widely known as concept of serendipity and the Pareto’s 80/20 principle. One may ask as to what is the relation between these two concepts. The relationship between the two lies in the fact as to how the Pareto’s principle was discovered using the concept of serendipity.

The concept of serendipity was created by British nobleman in 1700 from an ancient Persian fairy tale. It refers to the fact of finding interesting things by chance or when you are not thinking about it. It can be called an unplanned fortunate discovery. It is common occurrence throughout the history of product invention and scientific discovery. Some typical examples are Velcro the magic fastener, corn flakes, radium, laws of gravitation and so on, the examples are numerous and endless.

The Pareto’s 80/20 principle was visualized in 1848 by the Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto when he noticed that in his kitchen garden that   20% of pea plants generated 80% of healthy pea pods. Further investigation revealed that in Italy 80% of the land was owned by just 20% of the population. He investigated different industries and realized that 80% of the production comes from just 20% of the companies. The generalization thus became what is known as Pareto’s 80/20 principle.-

“80% of the results will come from just 20%of the action.”.

This came to be known later as Pareto’s famous 80/20 principle which is now very widely applied to a wide variety of situations whether it is business, production, sales, and government department and for that matter any given situation. It is just a concept and not a mathematical certainty hence 80/20 are not exact values but just approximations to express a concept that suggests that 20% of your actions will account for 80% of your results. It also suggests that 2 out of 10 persons in any organizations will turn out to be more productive than the rest 8 persons put together.

Virtues of Being Lazy

A small true life episode which goes to show that a professor can not stop questioning and testing.

" Both of us were invite for a lunch to a relatives house a couple of years back who was a professor and HOD in a central University. Both his sons in law (SIL) were present along with their spouses and grand children. All the SIL are very intelligent and very successful in their respective field and also the grandchildren. I was the only one who neither shared their lofty achievements and nor belonged to their subject so one can imagine my plight in such an environment where all the talk was just Greek and Latin to me. Maybe I was invited because of my wife. On top of it the elderly gentleman maybe in order to include me in the discussion or whatever turned to me and asked a question. One knows very well when a professor asks a question then it can not be to get some knowledge but only to test the knowledge of the guinea pig that was unfortunately me. The question to me was:-

" RK, What is the difference between laziness and letharginess according to you."

I just looked into his eyes and said-

" Laziness is a virtue whereas letharginess is a disease"

He looked at me for about 30 second, smiled and then there were no further questions to my relief and I was left alone to enjoy my lunch. Thankfully. The only positive point was that after that he gave me the respect which I deserved and listened to me when I talked. A very big achievement.

 

In Defence of Being Simple.

 

While looking at my TV remote I realized that out of all the functions provided there I have not used about 80% of the functions and also cannot recall as to the function of at least 70% of the buttons provided. Feeling intrigued I checked my mobile phone and again was shocked to learn that I have not used about 90% of the apps pre installed on my phone, but they were there occupying space, memory and making it difficult for me to reach the app I wanted to use. The same was for microwave convection oven, where my wife told me that she has used only three of maximum four functions provided there, but we had spent money to purchase one with lot of function without realizing that we are not going to use most of them. Probably we suffered from confirmation bias.

Research shows that 95% of people do not use 90% of the features on their remote and mobile phones. Instructions for machines, computers, etc, are always written by those who know the system and are not much help to those who do not. I am sure that you have never seen sign on road which says this is not the road to bus stand or railway station. We had 127 laws in our country which govern a business and majority of us cannot list out more than 4 to 5 laws which govern a citizen of this country. Politician often quote Constitution at the drop of their hats but probably cannot even list out the fundamental rights and duties of a citizen which so apply to them.

Life has become so complicated that it is impossible for anyone to remember and follow and to make prudent decisions from the mass of information available. Probably what we will need in future is a skill for knowledge management.

From this complexity comes stress, anxiety, frustration. One of the most annoying things I find is while dealing with machinery (electronic or otherwise), which will not function and do the job for which it was created. I have always thought as to why we make things complicated which end up waste of time, energy, effort and mental agony and there appears to be no justification to make them complex when they can be me simpler. But probably adding things is much simpler than thinking and cutting out the clutter to make it simple. It is like finding a needle in haystack. There is always a possibility that things could be made simpler and things could be done in a simpler way provided we make an effort towards it.

Things do not become simple or by their own or by chance you have to have the drive and passion to making slight changes make things simple. When I tell people that I am the laziest person in this world they laugh at me because they do not understand that by being lazy I always try to do it in a way by which I can do things easily, with less effort, less energy, less time and with less money. This in my opinion there is virtue of being lazy but again one has to make serious effort to become lazy. One cannot make a thing simpler unless one knows the subject very well and here lies a catch. In my opinion an expert is one who has made things simpler by understanding the subject very well and can explain to a person in simple as to what it means or applies by understanding as to what to pay attention to and what to ignore. Left to their own things will automatically become complex or people tend to make them complex in order to show their superior knowledge or understanding. Simplicity does not mean that one has to carry out big changes or fundamental changes but majority of times simplicity can be achieved by simply making slight adjustment in very small things or thinking or way of doing things or perhaps some planning..

Motor Accident & MACT

 

Motor Accident, Compensation, Insurance & MACT

Accident can happen with or caused by any resident, spouse, children or relative though I do not wish it to happen to anyone. Irrespective of whether one is the person that caused the accident or one was a victim certain actions need to be taken by the individual in order to safeguard his rights and avoid criminal case later on.

1. Take the victim to the hospital or ring up for ambulance for him to be taken and get him admitted/medical treatment. This will strengthen your case for any criminal action later on by anyone/police.

2. Report the incident to the police and file a FIR and get a copy of FIR for your use.

3. Intimate insurance company customer care with in 24 hrs and get the complaint or intimation number and keep it safe.

4. Remember FIR is a must if there is a third party injury or claim otherwise it is not.

5. The police as well as accused will try to pressure if you are a victim for a compromise for oblivious reasons

6. Make a compromise if the compensation is reasonable & respectable whether you are the accused or a victim.

7. If compromised is reached then make an agreement signed by both parties and two witnesses, mentioning the amount and that there will be no further claim by any party. Get it notarized if possible. This will come in handy if you put any claim to the insurance company for damages to the car.

8. If no compromise and one is a victim then file a case in Motor vehicle accident claim tribunal (MACT) in the district where the accident took place. One can argue himself and no lawyer is required. The claim amount will depend upon the injuries, age and income and will be paid by insurance company of the car as per the guidelines and table given by the Supreme Court.

9. FIR can be withdrawn or cancelled any time before filing the case or during the pendency of case if respectable & reasonable compromise is reached.

Take care, be safe and know your right and how to enforce them legally and be human.

In Defence of Fuzzy Logic

The term fuzzy logic refers to things which are not clear or vague. It is n approach based on the degree of information rather than the usual response of yes or no or what is termed in Boolean logic as true or false (0 or 1).

For example let us assume that here is in apple in your refrigerator. Now this statement is either true if the apple is there or it is false if it is not there. Here the simple logic or true or false can be very easily applied and depicted as 0 or 1 as the case may be. If one take a bite from the apple and then the apple is put back in the fridge without your knowledge then how one can describe the presence of apple. Is the apple therein the refrigerator or not. In this case the Boolean logic o true or false fails as the apple is neither there in the refrigerator as an apple nor it can be said it is not there. At best we can describe it in terms of percentage that 80% of the apple is there but the Boolean logic does not hold good here. It is for a situation like this where there is no definite answer of true or false that the fuzzy logic comes handy. Instead of a true or false as designated by 0 or 1 we can describe in terms of a shade of truth starting from 1 where it is true to 0 where it is false on a continuous spectrum of truth/false.

This term fuzzy logic was introduced by Loefi Zadeh in 1965 when he proposed a fuzzy set theory. It is based on the observation that people in general make decisions based on imprecise and non numeric information. The fuzzy logic basically is means to represent this vagueness and imprecise information. If one had the precise and accurate information then the decision would have been easy as true or false. These fuzzy models have the capability of recognizing this imperfectness of the information by utilizing information that are vague and lack certainty. Of course one can argue that there is no certainty in y information and it can be always represented on probability scale which is just another way of representing ignorance about the subject. But where the fuzzy logic scores is that it is based on these imperfect information and the decision also changes in order to adjust according to the  knowledge available.

For example if one asks a group of people to identify a color shown to them which is not from VINGYOR  then one would get a variety of responses. The truth here appears as a result of reasoning from inexact or partial knowledge in which the answers can be mapped on a continuous spectrum from 0 to 1. But here the fuzzy logic scores since it uses degree of truth as a mathematical model of vagueness while probability can be termed as mathematical model of ignorance.

The fuzzy logic was initially used in intelligent traffic management systems and later on was used in air conditioners and washing machines and dish washers but now a days it is widely used in control theory and artificial intelligence. Normal traffic light show green for a programmed period of time say 30 or 40 seconds and then change over to red. This is pre programmed but can be changed only if the programe is changed. But the traffic density in the morning is more going towards the city center and less in other directions which are cross to it and in the evening more traffic is going out than coming in. Because of the fixed timings this leads to long traffic lines in some direction whereas there is hardly and in other directions. Fuzzy logic based traffic lights sense this density of the traffic at all times on a continuous basis and change the duration of the green light to match with the traffic density. Same way the air conditioner senses the heat, number of persons in the room and changes cooling automatically and the washing machine senses the amount of clothes in the tub as well as their dirtiness and adjust the water, detergent and timing of wash to give you a perfect clean without any intervention or adjustment from your side.

In order to achieve this fuzzy logic uses and maps a set of IF and THEN conditions and responses to achieve its aim. For example it might be programmed that:-

If A exists then do X (meaning if situation A exists then the response will be X).

If B then do Y.

If C then do Z.

And so on and so forth.

The more number of conditions the better will be the response and in a hypothetical case of infinite conditions and responses the curve will become continuous one but it is practically impossible to have a large number of this set of IF and THEN rules . Hence they are restricted to a  small number and as the conditions increase so is the responses and the complexity of the system and the resulting cost.

Fuzzy Logic and Me

When we are about to establish the first factory, we were faced with a dilemma as to whether to follow the practices that are followed by other companies or choose our own path. The selection was not easy but we were convinced that if we follow the path taken by others then we will get the same results and the same problems and issues that they are facing. So after a long deliberation we decided to follow a new set of rules and new direction. The results were that a company with only 5 lacs seed money grew in 12 years to be a 900 Cr company and the first to be a debt free company along with a excellent quality award and JVM achievement award for me for Asia Pacific region along with a growth rate of about 40-42% each year.

In order to achieve it the lateral thinking techniques as propounded by Edward De Bono were of immense help. This from setting up, buying machinery, selection of workers and managerial staff, training, labor laws. production targets and setting up a new work culture with empowerment to the workers . The techniques especially used were,generation of alternatives, challenging assumptions, innovation, design, suspended judgement, dominant ideas and crucial factors, analogies, random simulation, choice of entry point and attention areas and the six thinking hats.

Just as an example can one think of a company which had no Engineers, technicians, MBA in its employment and only employed people between 18 to 22 years of age with no experience and who should not have worked anywhere and still be successful. A company where the workers take the mangers interview for employment, no rules except one, no production targets. A company which rewards mistakes. A company where the utilization rate of machinery was 99.97% for 10 years with fully automatic line. Well these are some examples of using lateral thinking and not following the practices followed by other and being unreasonable as others called it.

" Swim upstream. Go the other way. Ignore the conventional wisdom. If everyone else is doing one way there is a good chance you will find your niche by going in exactly the opposite direction."

Sam Walton

lateral Thinking- Uses

When we are about to establish the first factory, we were faced with a dilemma as to whether to follow the practices that are followed by other companies or choose our own path. The selection was not easy but we were convinced that if we follow the path taken by others then we will get the same results and the same problems and issues that they are facing. So after a long deliberation we decided to follow a new set of rules and new direction. The results were that a company with only 5 lacs seed money grew in 12 years to be a 900 Cr company and the first to be a debt free company along with a excellent quality award and JVM achievement award for me for Asia Pacific region along with a growth rate of about 40-42% each year.

In order to achieve it the lateral thinking techniques as propounded by Edward De Bono were of immense help. This from setting up, buying machinery, selection of workers and managerial staff, training, labor laws. production targets and setting up a new work culture with empowerment to the workers . The techniques especially used were,generation of alternatives, challenging assumptions, innovation, design, suspended judgement, dominant ideas and crucial factors, analogies, random simulation, choice of entry point and attention areas and the six thinking hats.

Just as an example can one think of a company which had no Engineers, technicians, MBA in its employment and only employed people between 18 to 22 years of age with no experience and who should not have worked anywhere and still be successful. A company where the workers take the mangers interview for employment, no rules except one, no production targets. A company which rewards mistakes. A company where the utilization rate of machinery was 99.97% for 10 years with fully automatic line. Well these are some examples of using lateral thinking and not following the practices followed by other and being unreasonable as others called it.

" Swim upstream. Go the other way. Ignore the conventional wisdom. If everyone else is doing one way there is a good chance you will find your niche by going in exactly the opposite direction."

Sam Walton

Organ Donation

                                          Organ Donation


As per official medial data in India every 20 second a person suffers brain stroke and if medical help is not provided within 4 hrs then it may result in brain death and because of this delay every 2 minutes a person dies.



In India organ donation is governed by the Transplantation of Human Organ (THO) Act 1994. Organ can be donated and harvested only if a person is declared brain dead under THO Act 1994 by the board consisting of doctors as required under the act. After natural death only the eyes which can be harvest within two hours and liver within half an hour can be done or whole body can be given for medical research. One can donate his organs or whole body for research. For this one has to sign the donation form with any NGO, Govt organization or even with military hospital or civil hospital or on the website of National Organ & Tissue Transplant Organization (NOTTO).


Once one is declared brain dead by the doctors by following the laid down procedure under the Act by the medical board then only the process of harvesting the usable organs can be started. Even if one has donated the organs by signing the required donation forms or on the website of NOTTO during your lifetime your legal heirs will still be asked whether they wish the organ to be harvested as required under the Act. If they say yes and sign the forms then the doctors will declare you brain dead under the THO Act 1994, remove the life support systems and harvest the organs. If they do not agree then the life support and the bill will continue till you are declared dead as required under the Registration Of Birth and Death Act 1969 and no harvesting will be done. This  may take days and meanwhile the medical bill will keep on increasing at an alarming rate if admitted in a private hospital

You can also make a living will or what is called an advance declaration that under the specified conditions your life support system or medication can be removed and you be declared dead under the THO Act. This document is registered with Judicial Magistrate first Class (JMFC) and not with registrar but the procedure to execute it is long and cumbersome as medical board is required to certify and execute the will under orders of JMFC.In this case the legal heirs need to notify the JFMC about the testator being brain dead so that the process as enumerated in the Supreme Court Judgement is followed to declare him brain dead.


 So make sure even if you have donated organs that your legal heirs or close relative attending you when you have been declared brain dead know that you have donated the organs and will sign the required form for life support system to be removed and organs harvested or notify the JMFC as the case may be.